@article {369, title = {Atlantic hurricanes and climate over the past 1,500 years}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {460}, year = {2009}, note = {id: 1893; ISI Document Delivery No.: 483CB Times Cited: 2 Cited Reference Count: 37 Cited References: BOLDT K, MAR GEOL UNPUB COBB KM, 2003, NATURE, V424, P271, DOI 10.1038/nature01779 DONNELLY JP, 2001, GEOL SOC AM BULL, V113, P714 DONNELLY JP, 2001, GEOLOGY, V29, P615 DONNELLY JP, 2004, MAR GEOL, V210, P107, DOI 10.1016/j.margeo.2004.05.005 DONNELLY JP, 2007, NATURE, V447, P465, DOI 10.1038/nature05834 ELSNER JB, 2008, J APPL METEOROL CLIM, V47, P368, DOI 10.1175/2007JAMC1692.1 GARCIAHERRERA R, 2005, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V110, ARTN D03109 GRAHAM NE, 2007, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V83, P241, DOI 10.1007/s10584-007-9239-2 HIPPENSTEEL SP, 2005, GEOL SOC AM BULL, V117, P250, DOI 10.1130/B25535.1 HOLLAND GJ, 2007, PHIL T R SOC A, DOI 10.1098/RSTA.2007.2083 JONES PD, 1997, INT J CLIMATOL, V17, P1433 KAPLAN A, 1998, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V103, P18567 KEIGWIN LD, 1996, SCIENCE, V274, P1504 KNUTSON TR, 2008, NAT GEOSCI, V1, P359, DOI 10.1038/ngeo202 LAMBERT WJ, 2003, T GULF COAST ASS GEO, V53, P443 LANDSEA CW, 2007, EOS T AGU, V88, P197, DOI 10.1029/2007E0180001 LIU KB, 2000, QUATERNARY RES, V54, P238 LUTERBACHER J, 2002, ATMOS SCI LETT, V2, P114, DOI 10.1006/ASLE.2001.0044 MANN ME, SCIENCE UNPUB MANN ME, 2005, J CLIMATE, V18, P447 MANN ME, 2007, EOS, V88, P349, DOI 10.1029/2007E0360002 MANN ME, 2007, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V34, ARTN L22707 MANN ME, 2008, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V35, DOI 10.1029/2008GL034716 NEU U, 2008, NATURE, V451, E5, DOI 10.1038/nature06576 NYBERG J, 2007, NATURE, V447, P698, DOI 10.1038/nature05895 OTVOS EG, 2002, QUATERNARY RES, V57, P425 RAYNER NA, 2003, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V108, ARTN 4407 RICHEY JN, 2007, GEOLOGY, V35, P423, DOI 10.1130/G23507A.1 SABBATELLI TA, J GEOPHYS RES UNPUB SABBATELLI TA, 2007, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V112, ARTN D17114 SCILEPPI E, 2007, GEOCHEM GEOPHY GEOSY, V8, P1 SCOTT DB, 2003, GEOL SOC AM BULL, V115, P1027 SMITH TM, 2003, J CLIMATE, V16, P1495 VECCHI GA, 2007, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V34, ARTN L08702 WOODRUFF JD, 2008, GEOCHEM GEOPHY GEOSY, V9, DOI 10.1029/2008GC002043 WOODRUFF JD, 2008, GEOLOGY, V36, P391, DOI 10.1130/G24731A.1 Mann, Michael E. Woodruff, Jonathan D. Donnelly, Jeffrey P. Zhang, Zhihua National Science Foundation [ATM-0542356, EAR-0519118, OCE-0402746]; YY}, pages = {880-U115}, abstract = {Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, as measured by annual storm counts, reached anomalous levels over the past decade(1). The short nature of the historical record and potential issues with its reliability in earlier decades, however, has prompted an ongoing debate regarding the reality and significance of the recent rise(2-5). Here we place recent activity in a longer-term context by comparing two independent estimates of tropical cyclone activity over the past 1,500 years. The first estimate is based on a composite of regional sedimentary evidence of landfalling hurricanes, while the second estimate uses a previously published statistical model of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity driven by proxy reconstructions of past climate changes. Both approaches yield consistent evidence of a peak in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity during medieval times (around AD 1000) followed by a subsequent lull in activity. The statistical model indicates that the medieval peak, which rivals or even exceeds (within uncertainties) recent levels of activity, results from the reinforcing effects of La-Nina-like climate conditions and relative tropical Atlantic warmth.}, issn = {0028-0836}, doi = {10.1038/nature08219}, author = {Mann, M. E. and Woodruff, J. D. and Donnelly, J. P. and Zhang, Z. H.} }