@article {winkler_more_2023,
	title = {More Frequent Hurricane Passage Across the Bahamian Archipelago During the Little Ice Age},
	journal = {Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology},
	volume = {38},
	number = {11},
	year = {2023},
	note = {_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2023PA004623},
	month = {11/2023},
	pages = {e2023PA004623},
	abstract = {The year 2020 Common Era (CE) experienced the highest number of named tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean since 1850 CE, but the short instrumental record makes it challenging to assess if this level of activity is statistically meaningful. Here, we present two near-annually resolved hurricane reconstructions from sediment archived in two blue holes located only 300 m apart on the northern margin of Grand Bahama. These two blue holes provide a replicated signal of hurricanes passing within a 50{\textendash}100 km radius over the last 1,800 years, and the long-term reconstructions document multiple 50-to-150-year intervals when hurricane frequency was significantly higher than it has been over the last 100 years. These two records were first merged into a single stack, and then compiled with five other high-resolution reconstructions from across the Bahamian Archipelago to form a single 1500-year record of Bahamian hurricane frequency. This new Bahamian Compilation documents more hurricanes passing \~{}75{\textdegree}W from 21{\textdegree}N to 26{\textdegree}N during the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1300{\textendash}1850 CE) relative to the prior millennium and the last 170 years. The US Eastern Seaboard also experienced heightened hurricane activity during the LIA, whereas the Gulf of Mexico and Southern Caribbean were inactive. This suggests that despite a globally cooler climate, regional climate conditions during the LIA remained favorable for cyclogenesis and intensification along certain Atlantic hurricane pathways. Perhaps heightened Sahel rainfall during the LIA indicates an increase in African Easterly waves, which in turn possibly seeded more tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Main Development Region.},
	keywords = {Bahamas, Carbonate, common era, hurricanes, Paleoclimate, sedimentology},
	issn = {2572-4525},
	doi = {10.1029/2023PA004623},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2023PA004623},
	author = {Winkler, T. S. and van Hengstum, P. J. and Donnelly, J. P. and Wallace, E. J. and Albury, N. A. and D{\textquoteright}Entremont, N. and Hawkes, A. D. and Maio, C. V. and Roberts, J. and Sullivan, R. M. and Woodruff, J. D.}
}
@article {2756,
	title = {Intense Hurricane Activity Over the Past 1500 Years at South Andros Island, The Bahamas},
	journal = {Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology},
	volume = {34},
	year = {2019},
	month = {May-11-2021},
	pages = {1761 - 1783},
	abstract = {Hurricanes cause substantial loss of life and resources in coastal areas. Unfortunately, historical hurricane records are too short and incomplete to capture hurricane-climate interactions on multi-decadal and longer timescales. Coarse-grained, hurricane-induced deposits preserved in blue holes in the Caribbean can provide records of past hurricane activity extending back thousands of years. Here we present a high resolution record of intense hurricane events over the past 1500 years from a blue hole on South Andros Island on the Great Bahama Bank. This record is corroborated by shorter reconstructions from cores collected at two nearby blue holes. The record contains coarse-grained event deposits attributable to known historical hurricane strikes within age uncertainties. Over the past 1500 years, South Andros shows evidence of four active periods of hurricane activity. None of these active intervals occurred in the past 163 years. We suggest that Intertropical Convergence Zone position modulates hurricane activity on the island based on a correlation with Cariaco Basin titanium concentrations. An anomalous gap in activity on South Andros Island in the early 13th century corresponds to a period of increased volcanism. The patterns of hurricane activity reconstructed from South Andros Island closely match those from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico but are anti-phased with records from New England. We suggest that either changes in local environmental conditions (e.g., SSTs) or a northeastward shift in storm tracks can account for the increased activity in the western North Atlantic when the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern Caribbean are less active.},
	issn = {2572-4517},
	doi = {10.1029/2019PA003665},
	url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019PA003665},
	author = {Wallace, E. J. and Donnelly, J. P. and Hengstum, P. J. and Wiman, C. and Sullivan, R. M. and Winkler, T. S. and d{\textquoteright}Entremont, N. E. and Toomey, M. and Albury, N.}
}
@article {203,
	title = {Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia},
	journal = {Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A},
	volume = {108},
	year = {2011},
	note = {id: 853; Kemp, Andrew C Horton, Benjamin P Donnelly, Jeffrey P Mann, Michael E Vermeer, Martin Rahmstorf, Stefan Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Jul 5;108(27):11017-22. Epub 2011 Jun 20.3131350submittedY},
	pages = {11017-22},
	abstract = {We present new sea-level reconstructions for the past 2100 y based on salt-marsh sedimentary sequences from the US Atlantic coast. The data from North Carolina reveal four phases of persistent sea-level change after correction for glacial isostatic adjustment. Sea level was stable from at least BC 100 until AD 950. Sea level then increased for 400 y at a rate of 0.6 mm/y, followed by a further period of stable, or slightly falling, sea level that persisted until the late 19th century. Since then, sea level has risen at an average rate of 2.1 mm/y, representing the steepest century-scale increase of the past two millennia. This rate was initiated between AD 1865 and 1892. Using an extended semiempirical modeling approach, we show that these sea-level changes are consistent with global temperature for at least the past millennium.},
	issn = {1091-6490 (Electronic) 0027-8424 (Linking)},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1015619108},
	url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21690367},
	author = {Kemp, A. C. and Horton, B. P. and Donnelly, J. P. and Mann, M. E. and Vermeer, M. and Rahmstorf, S.}
}
@article {202,
	title = {Rapid wetland expansion during European settlement and its implication for marsh survival under modern sediment delivery rates},
	journal = {Geology},
	volume = {39},
	year = {2011},
	note = {id: 846; 748TX Times Cited:2 Cited References Count:31under reviewY},
	pages = {507-510},
	abstract = {Fluctuations in sea-level rise rates are thought to dominate the formation and evolution of coastal wetlands. Here we demonstrate a contrasting scenario in which land-use-related changes in sediment delivery rates drive the formation of expansive marshland, and vegetation feedbacks maintain their morphology despite recent sediment supply reduction. Stratigraphic analysis and radiocarbon dating in the Plum Island Estuary (Massachusetts, United States) suggest that salt marshes expanded rapidly during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries due to increased rates of sediment delivery following deforestation associated with European settlement. Numerical modeling coupled with the stratigraphic observations suggests that existing marshland could survive, but not form under the low suspended sediment concentrations observed in the estuary today. These results suggest that many of the expansive marshes that characterize the modern North American coast are metastable relicts of high nineteenth century sediment delivery rates, and that recent observations of degradation may represent a slow return to pre-settlement marsh extent. In contrast to ecosystem management practices in which restoring pre-anthropogenic conditions is seen as a way to increase ecosystem services, our results suggest that widespread efforts to restore valuable coastal wetlands actually prevent some systems from returning to a natural state.},
	issn = {0091-7613},
	doi = {10.1130/G31789.1},
	author = {Kirwan, M. L. and Murray, A. B. and Donnelly, J. P. and Corbett, D. R.}
}
@article {429,
	title = {Abrupt climate change as an important agent of ecological change in the Northeast US throughout the past 15,000 years},
	journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
	volume = {28},
	year = {2009},
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WHITEHEAD DR, 1979, QUATERNARY RES, V12, P333 WHITMORE J, 2005, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V24, P1828, DOI 10.1016/j.quascirev.2005.03.005 WILLIAMS JW, 2002, GEOLOGY, V30, P971 WILLIAMS JW, 2004, ECOL MONOGR, V74, P309 WILLIAMS JW, 2006, ATLAS POLLEN VEGETAT WILLIAMS JW, 2008, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V27, P669, DOI 10.1016/j.quascirev.2008.01.004 WINKLER MG, 1985, QUATERNARY RES, V23, P301 YU ZC, 1997, GEOLOGY, V25, P251 YU ZC, 2007, QUATERNARY RES, V67, P297, DOI 10.1016/j.yqres.2006.08.006 Shuman, Bryan N. Newby, Paige Donnelly, Jeffrey P. Pergamon-elsevier science ltd Oxford Sp. Iss. SI; YY},
	pages = {1693-1709},
	abstract = {We use a series of tests to evaluate two competing hypotheses about the association of climate and vegetation trends in the northeastern United States over the past 15 kyrs. First, that abrupt climate changes on the scale of centuries had little influence on long-term vegetation trends, and second, that abrupt climate changes interacted with slower climate trends to determine the regional sequence of vegetation phases. Our results support the second. Large dissimilarity between temporally close fossil pollen samples indicates large vegetation changes within 500 years across >4 degrees of latitude at ca 13.25-12.75, 12.0-11.5, 10.5, 8.25, and 5.25 ka. The evidence of vegetation change coincides with independent isotopic and sedimentary indicators of rapid shifts in temperature and moisture balance. In several cases, abrupt changes reversed long-term vegetation trends, such as when spruce (Picea) and pine (Pinus) pollen percentages rapidly declined to the north and increased to the south at ca 13.25-12.75 and 8.25 ka respectively. Abrupt events accelerated other long-term trends, such as a regional increase in beech (Fagus) pollen percentages at 8.5-8.0 ka. The regional hemlock (Tsuga) decline at ca 5.25 ka is unique among the abrupt events, and may have been induced by high climatic variability (i.e., repeated severe droughts from 5.7 to 2.0 ka); autoregressive ecological and evolutionary processes could have maintained low hemlock abundance until ca 2.0 ka. Delayed increases in chestnut (Castanea) pollen abundance after 5.8 and 2.5 ka also illustrate the potential for multi-century climate variability to influence species{\textquoteright} recruitment as well as mortality. Future climate changes will probably also rapidly initiate persistent vegetation change, particularly by acting as broad, regional-scale disturbances. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd.},
	issn = {0277-3791},
	doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.04.005},
	author = {Shuman, B. N. and Newby, P. and Donnelly, J. P.}
}
@article {369,
	title = {Atlantic hurricanes and climate over the past 1,500 years},
	journal = {Nature},
	volume = {460},
	year = {2009},
	note = {id: 1893; ISI Document Delivery No.: 483CB Times Cited: 2 Cited Reference Count: 37 Cited References: BOLDT K, MAR GEOL UNPUB COBB KM, 2003, NATURE, V424, P271, DOI 10.1038/nature01779 DONNELLY JP, 2001, GEOL SOC AM BULL, V113, P714 DONNELLY JP, 2001, GEOLOGY, V29, P615 DONNELLY JP, 2004, MAR GEOL, V210, P107, DOI 10.1016/j.margeo.2004.05.005 DONNELLY JP, 2007, NATURE, V447, P465, DOI 10.1038/nature05834 ELSNER JB, 2008, J APPL METEOROL CLIM, V47, P368, DOI 10.1175/2007JAMC1692.1 GARCIAHERRERA R, 2005, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V110, ARTN D03109 GRAHAM NE, 2007, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V83, P241, DOI 10.1007/s10584-007-9239-2 HIPPENSTEEL SP, 2005, GEOL SOC AM BULL, V117, P250, DOI 10.1130/B25535.1 HOLLAND GJ, 2007, PHIL T R SOC A, DOI 10.1098/RSTA.2007.2083 JONES PD, 1997, INT J CLIMATOL, V17, P1433 KAPLAN A, 1998, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V103, P18567 KEIGWIN LD, 1996, SCIENCE, V274, P1504 KNUTSON TR, 2008, NAT GEOSCI, V1, P359, DOI 10.1038/ngeo202 LAMBERT WJ, 2003, T GULF COAST ASS GEO, V53, P443 LANDSEA CW, 2007, EOS T AGU, V88, P197, DOI 10.1029/2007E0180001 LIU KB, 2000, QUATERNARY RES, V54, P238 LUTERBACHER J, 2002, ATMOS SCI LETT, V2, P114, DOI 10.1006/ASLE.2001.0044 MANN ME, SCIENCE UNPUB MANN ME, 2005, J CLIMATE, V18, P447 MANN ME, 2007, EOS, V88, P349, DOI 10.1029/2007E0360002 MANN ME, 2007, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V34, ARTN L22707 MANN ME, 2008, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V35, DOI 10.1029/2008GL034716 NEU U, 2008, NATURE, V451, E5, DOI 10.1038/nature06576 NYBERG J, 2007, NATURE, V447, P698, DOI 10.1038/nature05895 OTVOS EG, 2002, QUATERNARY RES, V57, P425 RAYNER NA, 2003, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V108, ARTN 4407 RICHEY JN, 2007, GEOLOGY, V35, P423, DOI 10.1130/G23507A.1 SABBATELLI TA, J GEOPHYS RES UNPUB SABBATELLI TA, 2007, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V112, ARTN D17114 SCILEPPI E, 2007, GEOCHEM GEOPHY GEOSY, V8, P1 SCOTT DB, 2003, GEOL SOC AM BULL, V115, P1027 SMITH TM, 2003, J CLIMATE, V16, P1495 VECCHI GA, 2007, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V34, ARTN L08702 WOODRUFF JD, 2008, GEOCHEM GEOPHY GEOSY, V9, DOI 10.1029/2008GC002043 WOODRUFF JD, 2008, GEOLOGY, V36, P391, DOI 10.1130/G24731A.1 Mann, Michael E. Woodruff, Jonathan D. Donnelly, Jeffrey P. Zhang, Zhihua National Science Foundation [ATM-0542356, EAR-0519118, OCE-0402746]; YY},
	pages = {880-U115},
	abstract = {Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, as measured by annual storm counts, reached anomalous levels over the past decade(1). The short nature of the historical record and potential issues with its reliability in earlier decades, however, has prompted an ongoing debate regarding the reality and significance of the recent rise(2-5). Here we place recent activity in a longer-term context by comparing two independent estimates of tropical cyclone activity over the past 1,500 years. The first estimate is based on a composite of regional sedimentary evidence of landfalling hurricanes, while the second estimate uses a previously published statistical model of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity driven by proxy reconstructions of past climate changes. Both approaches yield consistent evidence of a peak in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity during medieval times (around AD 1000) followed by a subsequent lull in activity. The statistical model indicates that the medieval peak, which rivals or even exceeds (within uncertainties) recent levels of activity, results from the reinforcing effects of La-Nina-like climate conditions and relative tropical Atlantic warmth.},
	issn = {0028-0836},
	doi = {10.1038/nature08219},
	author = {Mann, M. E. and Woodruff, J. D. and Donnelly, J. P. and Zhang, Z. H.}
}
@article {488,
	title = {A chronology of hurricane landfalls at Little Sippewissett Marsh, Massachusetts, USA, using optical dating},
	journal = {Geomorphology},
	volume = {109},
	year = {2009},
	note = {id: 861; ISI Document Delivery No.: 465RS Times Cited: 1 Cited Reference Count: 47 Cited References: *NOAA NOS COOPS, 2006, VER HIST WAT LEV DAT AITKEN MJ, 1985, THERMOLUMINESCENCE D ANDERSON TW, 1974, CAN J EARTH SCI, V11, P678 BAILEY RM, 1997, RADIAT MEAS, V27, P123 BAILEY SD, 2001, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V20, P701 BALLARINI M, 2003, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V22, P1011, DOI 10.1016/S0277-3791(03)00043-X BERGER GW, 2003, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V22, P1043, DOI 10.1016/S0277-3791(03)00017-9 BOOSE ER, 2001, ECOL MONOGR, V71, P27 BOSSAK BH, 2003, EARLY 19 CENTURY US BOTTERJENSEN L, 1988, NUCL TRACKS RAD MEAS, V14, P187 BOTTERJENSEN L, 1997, RADIAT MEAS, V27, P749 CHOI JH, 2003, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V22, P407 DIVIGALPITIYA WMR, 1982, THESIS S FRASER U BU DONNELLY JP, 2001, GEOL SOC AM BULL, V113, P714 DONNELLY JP, 2001, GEOLOGY, V29, P615 DONNELLY JP, 2004, HURRICANES TYPHOONS, P58 DONNELLY JP, 2004, MAR GEOL, V210, P107, DOI 10.1016/j.margeo.2004.05.005 DULLER GAT, 2004, J QUATERNARY SCI, V19, P183, DOI 10.1002/jqs.809 EMANUEL K, 2005, NATURE, V436, P686, DOI 10.1038/nature03906 GALBRAITH RF, 1999, ARCHAEOMETRY 2, V41, P339 GOLDENBERG SB, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P474 HENDERSONSELLERS A, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P19 HUNTLEY DJ, 1994, ANCIENT TL, V12, P41 JAGGER TH, 2006, J CLIMATE, V19, P3220 JAIN M, 2005, RADIAT MEAS, V39, P309 LANDSEA CW, 2004, HURRICANES TYPHOONS, P177 LANDSEA CW, 2006, SCIENCE, V313, P452, DOI 10.1126/science.1128448 LIAN OB, 2006, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V25, P2449, DOI 10.1016/j.quascirev.2005.11.013 LIU KB, 1993, GEOLOGY, V21, P793 LIU KB, 2000, QUATERNARY RES, V54, P238 LUDLUM DM, 1963, EARLY AM HURRICANES MADSEN AT, 2005, MAR GEOL, V214, P251, DOI 10.1016/j.margeo.2004.10.034 MADSEN AT, 2007, J COASTAL RES, V23, P1259, DOI 10.2112/05-0471.1 MADSEN AT, 2007, MAR GEOL, V242, P221, DOI 10.1016/j.margeo.2007.03.001 MANN ME, 2006, EOS, V87, P233 MURRAY AS, 2000, RADIAT MEAS, V32, P57 MURRAY AS, 2002, GEOCHRONOMETRIA, V21, P1 MURRAY AS, 2003, RADIAT MEAS, V37, P377, DOI 10.1016/S1350-4487(03)00053-2 NEUMANN CJ, 1993, NCDC NHC HIST CLIMAT, V6 PIELKE RA, 1998, WEATHER FORECAST 2, V13, P621 PRESCOTT JR, 1988, NUCL TRACKS RAD MEAS, V14, P223 PRESCOTT JR, 1994, RADIAT MEAS, V23, P497 RHODES EJ, 2000, RADIAT MEAS, V32, P595 STUIVER M, 1998, RADIOCARBON, V40, P1041 TRENBERTH KE, 2006, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V33, ARTN L12704 WEBSTER PJ, 2005, SCIENCE, V309, P1844, DOI 10.1126/science.1116448 WINTLE AG, 2006, RADIAT MEAS, V41, P369, DOI 10.1016/j.radmeas.2005.11.001 Madsen, A. T. Duller, G. A. T. Donnelly, J. P. Roberts, H. M. Wintle, A. G. National Science Foundation [0519118] The authors wish to acknowledge Dana MacDonald for pollen analysis. This work was supported by National Science Foundation award $\#$0519118. Elsevier science bv Amsterdam Sp. Iss. SI; YY},
	pages = {36-45},
	abstract = {Optical dating has been applied to sediments preserved in Little Sippewissett Marsh, Massachusetts, USA, which are associated with overwashing of the beach barrier during hurricane strikes on the coast. The aims were to determine the hurricane landfall frequency, and make comparisons with independent age control and the historical record. Written sources of hurricane activity along the American east coast are only considered reliable back to the mid 19th century, but the sedimentary record is potentially much longer. Optical dating was applied to quartz grains extracted from thirteen samples within a sediment core from the salt-marsh. Variability in the luminescence characteristics between aliquots was observed and similar to 33\% of the measured aliquots were discarded based upon the ratio of the fast component to the medium component. The majority of the samples gave normal dose distributions implying homogeneous resetting of the luminescence signal at the time of deposition, but three of the samples required application of the minimum age model (MAM). Ages ranging between 20 +/- 2 and 594 +/- 38 years were obtained and are broadly in agreement with independent chronologies, thus demonstrating the potential of optical dating in this setting. The hurricane record based upon optical dating extends approximately 300 years further back in time than the official National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) record. The localised nature of hurricane landfalls means that it will be necessary to collect multiple cores from a number of different sites in order to build up a complete hurricane record for this part of the coast. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.},
	issn = {0169-555X},
	doi = {10.1016/j.geomorph.2008.08.023},
	author = {Madsen, A. T. and Duller, G. A. T. and Donnelly, J. P. and Roberts, H. M. and Wintle, A. G.}
}
@article {430,
	title = {Evidence of centennial-scale drought from southeastern Massachusetts during the Pleistocene/Holocene transition},
	journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
	volume = {28},
	year = {2009},
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Donnelly, Jeffrey P. Shuman, Bryan N. MacDonald, Dana Pergamon-elsevier science ltd Oxford Sp. Iss. SI; YY},
	pages = {1675-1692},
	abstract = {A principal method for studying past hydroclimatic change is the reconstruction of paleo-lake levels. Here, we provide high-resolution lake-level records from New Long Pond and Rocky Pond in southeastern Massachusetts, which each contain evidence for multiple, sub-centennial-to-millennial scale low stands during the transition between the Late Pleistocene (15.0 ka) and Middle Holocene (ca 7.0 ka). Data from New Long Pond also demonstrate sedimentary evidence for a drop in water levels in the early to mid AD 20th century, when long-term trends in instrumental data show lower-than-average precipitation in the northeastern United States. Local data show the most precipitous declines in precipitation and groundwater levels are concurrent with the most severe drought in the AD 1960s, which occurred during a period of low sea-surface temperatures in the western North Atlantic. Ground penetrating radar and sediment core data indicate five intervals with numerous paleo-shoreline deposits between ca 15.0 and 7.0 ka, similar to the layer deposited in the AD 1960s. Many of the intervals of low lake levels coincide with proposed meltwater release events or abrupt climate oscillations in the circum North Atlantic. For example, we document at least three low stands during the Younger Dryas (12.9-11.6 ka) and in association with the "9.2" and "8.2" ka events. The combined evidence of (1) concurrent paleo-droughts in southeastern New England with documented North Atlantic abrupt cooling events and (2) recent drought with the modern association of low sea-surface temperatures indicates that freshening and cooling of the western North Atlantic is a viable mechanism for decreasing moisture within the region. Large-scale changes in seasonality and ice sheet extent also may have increased the susceptibility of the northeast to dry conditions triggered by changes in the North Atlantic. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
	issn = {0277-3791},
	doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.02.020},
	author = {Newby, P. E. and Donnelly, J. P. and Shuman, B. N. and MacDonald, D.}
}
@article {431,
	title = {Exploring typhoon variability over the mid-to-late Holocene: evidence of extreme coastal flooding from Kamikoshiki, Japan},
	journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
	volume = {28},
	year = {2009},
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Donnelly, Jeffrey P. Okusu, Akiko Pergamon-elsevier science ltd Oxford Sp. Iss. SI; YY},
	pages = {1774-1785},
	abstract = {Sediment cores from two coastal lakes located on the island of Kamikoshiki in southwestern Japan (Lake Namakoike and Lake Kaiike) provide evidence for the response of a backbarrier beach system to episodic coastal inundation over the last 6400 years. Sub-bottom seismic surveys exhibit acoustically laminated, parallel to subparallel seismic reflectors, intermittently truncated by erosional unconformities. Sediment cores collected from targeted depocenters in both lakes contain finely laminated organic mud interbedded with coarse-grained units, with depths of coarse deposits concurrent with prominent seismic reflectors. The timing of the youngest deposit at Kamikoshiki correlates to the most recently documented breach in the barrier during a typhoon in 1951 AD. Assuming that this modern deposit provides an analog for identifying past events, paleo-typhoons may be reconstructed from layers exhibiting an increase in grain-size, a break in fine-scale stratigraphy, and elevated Sr concentrations. Periods of barrier breaching are concurrent with an increase in El Nino frequency, indicating that the El Nino/Southern Oscillation has potentially played a key role in governing typhoon variability during the mid-to-late Holocene. An inverse correlation is observed between tropical cyclone reconstructions from the western North Atlantic and the Kamikoshiki site, which may indicate an oscillating pattern in tropical cyclone activity between the western Northern Atlantic and the western North Pacific, or at least between the western Northern Atlantic and regions encompassing southern Japan. The two kamikaze typhoons which contributed to the failed Mongol invasions of Japan in 1274 AD and 1281 AD occur during a period with more frequent marine-sourced deposition at the site, suggesting that the events took place during a period of greater regional typhoon activity. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
	issn = {0277-3791},
	doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.02.005},
	author = {Woodruff, J. D. and Donnelly, J. P. and Okusu, A.}
}
@article {384,
	title = {Assessing sedimentary records of paleohurricane activity using modeled hurricane climatology},
	journal = {Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems},
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	year = {2008},
	note = {id: 1895; ISI Document Delivery No.: 351AC Times Cited: 2 Cited Reference Count: 46 Cited References: BOVE MC, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P2477 DEMUTH JL, 2006, J APPL METEOROL CLIM, V45, P1573 DONNELLY JP, 2001, GEOL SOC AM BULL, V113, P714 DONNELLY JP, 2001, GEOLOGY, V29, P615 DONNELLY JP, 2001, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V98, P14218 DONNELLY JP, 2004, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V31, ARTN L05203 DONNELLY JP, 2004, HURRICANES TYPHOONS, P58 DONNELLY JP, 2004, MAR GEOL, V210, P107, DOI 10.1016/j.margeo.2004.05.005 DONNELLY JP, 2005, J COAST RES S, V142, P201 DONNELLY JP, 2007, NATURE, V447, P465, DOI 10.1038/nature05834 ELSNER JB, 2001, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V28, P4123 ELSNER JB, 2001, J CLIMATE, V14, P4341 ELSNER JB, 2008, J APPL METEOROL CLIM, V47, P368, DOI 10.1175/2007JAMC1692.1 EMANUEL K, 2004, J ATMOS SCI, V61, P843 EMANUEL K, 2006, B AM METEOROL SOC, V87, P299, DOI 10.1175/BAMS-87-3-299 EMANUEL K, 2008, B AM METEOROL SOC, V89, P347, DOI 10.1175/BAMS-89-3-347 FRAPPIER A, 2007, TELLUS A, V59, P529, DOI 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00250.x FRAPPIER AB, 2007, GEOLOGY, V35, P111, DOI 10.1130/G23145A.1 GEHRELS WR, 2005, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V24, P2083, DOI 10.1016/j.quascirev.2004.11.016 GOLDENBERG SB, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P474 GONZALEZ JL, 2006, EOS, V87, P493, DOI 10.1029/2006EO450001 GRAY WM, 1984, MON WEATHER REV, V112, P1649 JELESNIANSKI CP, 1992, NOAA TECH REP NWS, V48 KALNAY E, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P437 LAMBERT WJ, 2008, J PALEOLIMNOL, V39, P117, DOI 10.1007/s10933-007-9101-6 LIGHTY RG, 1982, CORAL REEFS, V1, P125 LIU KB, 1993, GEOLOGY, V21, P793 LIU KB, 2000, QUATERNARY RES, V54, P238 MALMQUIST DL, 1997, 22 C HURR TROP MET A MERCADO A, 1994, NAT HAZARDS, V10, P235, DOI 10.1007/BF00596144 MILLER DL, 2006, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V103, P14294, DOI 10.1073/pnas.0606549103 MOY CM, 2002, NATURE, V420, P162 NGUETSOP VF, 2004, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V23, P591, DOI 10.1016/j.quascirev.2003.10.007 NOTT J, 2001, NATURE, V413, P508 NOTT J, 2004, ENVIRON INT, V30, P433, DOI 10.1016/j.cnvint.2003.09.010 NOTT J, 2007, EARTH PLANET SC LETT, V255, P367, DOI 10.1016/j.epsl.2006.12.023 NYBERG J, 2002, PALAEOGEOGR PALAEOCL, V183, P25 PIELKE RA, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P2027 PIELKE RA, 2008, NAT HAZARDS REV, V9, P29, DOI 10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2008)9:1(29) RICHEY JN, 2007, GEOLOGY, V35, P423, DOI 10.1130/G23507A.1 SCILEPPI E, 2007, GEOCHEM GEOPHY GEOSY, V8, ARTN Q06011 SIMPSON RH, 1981, HURRICANE ITS IMPACT STOCKDON HF, 2006, COAST ENG, V53, P573, DOI 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2005.12.005 TORNQVIST TE, 2004, GEOL SOC AM BULL, V116, P1026, DOI 10.1130/B2525478.1 WOODRUFF JD, 2008, VIEQUES PUERTO RICO, V36, P391, DOI 10.1130/G24731A.1 WRIGHT CW, 2001, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V31, P2472 Woodruff, Jonathan D. Donnelly, Jeffrey P. Emanuel, Kerry Lane, Philip National Science Foundation ; Risk Prediction Initiative ; National Geographic Society ; Coastal Ocean Institute at WHOI ; Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Endowed Fund for Innovative Research Funding for this research was provided by the Earth Systems History Program of the National Science Foundation, Risk Prediction Initiative, National Geographic Society, Coastal Ocean Institute at WHOI, and the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Endowed Fund for Innovative Research. We are grateful to E. Bryant, M. Gomes, E. Scileppi, and J. Tierney, who assisted with the field and lab work, and thank A. Solow for informative discussions. Special thanks to J. Elsner for providing the POT modeling code and documentation. This article benefited through constructive reviews by three anonymous referees. Amer geophysical union Washington; YY},
	abstract = {Patterns of overwash deposition observed within back-barrier sediment archives can indicate past changes in tropical cyclone activity; however, it is necessary to evaluate the significance of observed trends in the context of the full range of variability under modern climate conditions. Here we present a method for assessing the statistical significance of patterns observed within a sedimentary hurricane-overwash reconstruction. To alleviate restrictions associated with the limited number of historical hurricanes affecting a specific site, we apply a recently published technique for generating a large number of synthetic storms using a coupled ocean- atmosphere hurricane model set to simulate modern climatology. Thousands of overwash records are generated for a site using a random draw of these synthetic hurricanes, a prescribed threshold for overwash, and a specified temporal resolution based on sedimentation rates observed at a particular site. As a test case we apply this Monte Carlo technique to a hurricane- induced overwash reconstruction developed from Laguna Playa Grande (LPG), a coastal lagoon located on the island of Vieques, Puerto Rico in the northeastern Caribbean. Apparent overwash rates in the LPG overwash record are observed to be four times lower between 2500 and 1000 years B. P. when compared to apparent overwash rates during the last 300 years. However, probability distributions based on Monte Carlo simulations indicate that as much as 65\% of this drop can be explained by a reduction in the temporal resolution for older sediments due to a decrease in sedimentation rates. Periods of no apparent overwash activity at LPG between 2500 and 3600 years B. P. and 500-1000 years B. P. are exceptionally long and are unlikely to occur (above 99\% confidence) under the current climate conditions. In addition, breaks in activity are difficult to produce even when the hurricane model is forced to a constant El Nino state. Results from this study continue to support the interpretation that the western North Atlantic has exhibited significant changes in hurricane climatology over the last 5500 years.},
	issn = {1525-2027},
	doi = {10.1029/2008gc002043},
	author = {Woodruff, J. D. and Donnelly, J. P. and Emanuel, K. and Lane, P.}
}
@article {320,
	title = {Reconstructing relative flooding intensities responsible for hurricane-induced deposits from Laguna Playa Grande, Vieques, Puerto Rico},
	journal = {Geology},
	volume = {36},
	year = {2008},
	note = {id: 865; ISI Document Delivery No.: 300VM Times Cited: 3 Cited Reference Count: 19 Cited References: BALDOCK TE, 2005, COAST ENG, V52, P633, DOI 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2005.04.002 BOOSE ER, 2004, ECOL MONOGR, V74, P335 DONNELLY C, 2006, J COASTAL RES, V22, P965, DOI 10.2112/04-0431.1 DONNELLY JP, 2001, GEOLOGY, V29, P615 DONNELLY JP, 2007, NATURE, V447, P465, DOI 10.1038/nature05834 FERGUSON RI, 2004, J SEDIMENT RES, V74, P933 HAUG GH, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P1304 HOLLAND TK, 2001, COASTAL SEDIMENTS 91, P489 JAFFE BE, 2007, SEDIMENT GEOL, V200, P347, DOI 10.1016/j.sedgeo.2007.01.013 LIU KB, 1993, GEOLOGY, V21, P793 MERCADO A, 1994, NAT HAZARDS, V10, P235, DOI 10.1007/BF00596144 MEYERPETER E, 1948, 2ND P C IAHR STOCKH, V2, P39 MOORE AL, 2007, SEDIMENT GEOL, V200, P336, DOI 10.1016/j.sedgeo.2007.01.012 NOTT J, 2004, ENVIRON INT, V30, P433, DOI 10.1016/j.cnvint.2003.09.010 NYBERG J, 2001, QUATERNARY RES, V56, P87, DOI 10.1006/qres.2001.2249 RUESSINK BG, 1998, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V103, P3111 SOLA EM, 1995, HISTORIA HURACANES P STOCKDON HF, 2006, COAST ENG, V53, P573, DOI 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2005.12.005 VISSER PJ, 1998, BREACH GROWTH SAND D Woodruff, Jonathan D. Donnelly, Jeffrey P. Mohrig, David Geyer, Wayne R. Geological soc amer, inc Boulder; YY},
	pages = {391-394},
	abstract = {Extreme coastal flooding, primarily during hurricane strikes, has deposited sand-rich layers in Laguna Playa Grande, a back-barrier lagoon located on the island of Vieques, Puerto Rico. Silici-clastic grain-size distributions within these overwash deposits fine landward (away from the barrier and toward the mainland). A simple advective-settling model can explain this pattern of lateral sorting and is used to constrain the relative magnitude of past flooding events. A deposit associated with the A.D. 1928 San Felipe hurricane is used as a modern analogue to test the technique, which produces reasonable estimates for wave heights that exceed the barrier during the event. A 5000 yr reconstruction of local flooding intensity is developed that provides a measure of the competence for each overwash event to transport coarser-grained sediment a fixed distance into the lagoon. This reconstruction indicates that although the Laguna Playa Grande record exhibits large-scale changes in hurricane frequency on centennial to millennial time scales, the magnitude of these events has stayed relatively constant. Over the last 5000 yr, no evidence exists for an anomalously large hurricane or tsunami event with a competence for sediment transport greater than historical hurricane events.},
	issn = {0091-7613},
	doi = {10.1130/g24731a.1},
	author = {Woodruff, J. D. and Donnelly, J. P. and Mohrig, D. and Geyer, W. R.}
}
@article {324,
	title = {Research focus - Tempestuous highs and lows in the Gulf of Mexico},
	journal = {Geology},
	volume = {36},
	year = {2008},
	note = {id: 863; ISI Document Delivery No.: 344QW Times Cited: 3 Cited Reference Count: 25 Cited References: BLUM MD, 2003, T GULF COAST ASS GEO, V53, P64 BLUM MD, 2008, GEOLOGY, V36, P675, DOI 10.1130/G24728A.1 DONNELLY JP, 2007, NATURE, V447, P465, DOI 10.1038/nature05834 GIOSAN L, 2006, GEOLOGY, V34, P757, DOI 10.1130/G22587.1 HUTTON EWH, 2008, COMPUT GEOSCI-UK, V34, P1319, DOI 10.1016/j.cageo.2008.02.013 IVINS ER, 2007, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V34, ARTN L16303 JURKOWSKI G, 1984, J GEOPHYS RES, V89, P6247 KOMAR PD, 2008, J COASTAL RES, V24, P479, DOI 10.2112/07-0894.1 LAMBERT WJ, 2003, T GULF COAST ASS GEO, V53, P433 LIU KB, 2004, HURRICANES TYPHOONS, P13 LOPEZ GI, 2008, J COASTAL RES, P49 MILLIKEN KT, 2008, GEOL S AM S, V443, P1, DOI 10.1130/2008.2443(01) MORTON RA, 2000, J SEDIMENT RES A, V70, P478 OTVOS EG, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V11, P984 OTVOS EG, 1999, J COASTAL RES, V15, P438 OTVOS EG, 2000, GEOMORPHOLOGY, V32, P83 OTVOS EG, 2002, QUATERNARY RES, V57, P425 RODRIGUEZ AB, 2004, J SEDIMENT RES, V74, P405 RODRIGUEZ AB, 2006, J SEDIMENT RES, V76, P257, DOI 10.2110/jsr.2006.018 SHEPARD FP, 1964, SCIENCE, V143, P574 STAPOR FW, 1991, J COASTAL RES, V7, P815 TANNER WF, 1992, B AM METEOROL SOC, V73, P297 TANNER WF, 1995, MAR GEOL, V129, P149 TORNQVIST TE, 2006, GEOLOGY, V34, P697, DOI 10.1130/G22624.1 WRIGHT EE, 2005, J SEDIMENT RES, V75, P621 Donnelly, Jeffrey P. Giosan, Liviu Geological soc amer, inc Boulder; YY},
	pages = {751-752},
	issn = {0091-7613},
	doi = {10.1130/focus092008.1},
	author = {Donnelly, J. P. and Giosan, L.}
}
@article {716,
	title = {Intense hurricane activity over the past 5,000 years controlled by El Nino and the West African monsoon},
	journal = {Nature},
	volume = {447},
	year = {2007},
	note = {Donnelly, Jeffrey PWoodruff, Jonathan DengResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov{\textquoteright}tResearch Support, U.S. Gov{\textquoteright}t, Non-P.H.S.England2007/05/25 09:00Nature. 2007 May 24;447(7143):465-8.},
	month = {May 24},
	pages = {465-8},
	abstract = {The processes that control the formation, intensity and track of hurricanes are poorly understood. It has been proposed that an increase in sea surface temperatures caused by anthropogenic climate change has led to an increase in the frequency of intense tropical cyclones, but this proposal has been challenged on the basis that the instrumental record is too short and unreliable to reveal trends in intense tropical cyclone activity. Storm-induced deposits preserved in the sediments of coastal lagoons offer the opportunity to study the links between climatic conditions and hurricane activity on longer timescales, because they provide centennial- to millennial-scale records of past hurricane landfalls. Here we present a record of intense hurricane activity in the western North Atlantic Ocean over the past 5,000 years based on sediment cores from a Caribbean lagoon that contain coarse-grained deposits associated with intense hurricane landfalls. The record indicates that the frequency of intense hurricane landfalls has varied on centennial to millennial scales over this interval. Comparison of the sediment record with palaeo-climate records indicates that this variability was probably modulated by atmospheric dynamics associated with variations in the El Nino/Southern Oscillation and the strength of the West African monsoon, and suggests that sea surface temperatures as high as at present are not necessary to support intervals of frequent intense hurricanes. To accurately predict changes in intense hurricane activity, it is therefore important to understand how the El Nino/Southern Oscillation and the West African monsoon will respond to future climate change.},
	issn = {0028-0836 (Linking)},
	doi = {10.1038/nature05834},
	author = {Donnelly, J. P. and Woodruff, J. D.}
}
@article {1891,
	title = {Sedimentary evidence of hurricane strikes in western Long Island, New York},
	journal = {Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems},
	volume = {8},
	year = {2007},
	note = {182vrTimes Cited:48
Cited References Count:59
},
	month = {Jun 21},
	abstract = {[1] Evidence of historical landfalling hurricanes and prehistoric storms has been recovered from backbarrier environments in the New York City area. Overwash deposits correlate with landfalls of the most intense documented hurricanes in the area, including the hurricanes of 1893, 1821, 1788, and 1693 A. D. There is little evidence of intense hurricane landfalls in the region for several hundred years prior to the late 17th century A. D. The apparent increase in intense hurricane landfalls around 300 years ago occurs during the latter half of the Little Ice Age, a time of lower tropical sea surface temperatures. Multiple washovers laid down between similar to 2200 and 900 cal yr B. P. suggest an interval of frequent intense hurricane landfalls in the region. Our results provide preliminary evidence that fluctuations in intense hurricane landfall in the northeastern United States were roughly synchronous with hurricane landfall fluctuations observed for the Caribbean and Gulf Coast, suggesting North Atlantic - wide changes in hurricane activity.},
	keywords = {barrier-island, climate, Coastal geology, fire-island, global change : climate variability, hurricane, hydrology : extreme events, hydrology : hydroclimatology, ice-age, New York, new-england, new-jersey, past 5,000 years, Salt marsh, salt-marsh, sea-level rise, sedimentation, tidal marsh, tropical cyclones},
	isbn = {1525-2027},
	doi = {10.1029/2006GC001463},
	author = {Scileppi, E. and Donnelly, J. P.}
}
@article {1941,
	title = {Flooding of Bering Strait and Holocene climate in the Chukchi Sea},
	journal = {Geology},
	volume = {34},
	year = {2006},
	note = {id: 678},
	month = {2006},
	pages = {861-864},
	author = {Keigwin, L. D. and Donnelly, J. P. and Cook, M. S. and Driscoll, N. W. and Brigham-Grette, J.}
}
@article {654,
	title = {The influence of seasonal precipitation and temperature regimes on lake levels in the northeastern United States during the Holocene},
	journal = {Quaternary Research},
	volume = {65},
	year = {2006},
	note = {003pfTimes Cited:40Cited References Count:48},
	month = {Jan},
	pages = {44-56},
	abstract = {AMS-dated sediment cores combined with ground-penetrating radar profiles from two lakes in southeastern Massachusetts demonstrate that regional water levels rose and fell multiple times during the Holocene when the known climatic controls (i.e., ice extent and insolation) underwent unidirectional changes. The lakes were lowest between 10,000 and 9000 and between 5500 and 3000 cat yr B.P. Using a heuristic moisture-budget model, we explore the hypothesis that changes in seasonal precipitation regimes, driven by monotonic trends in ice extent and insolation, plausibly explain the multiple lake-level changes. Simulated lake levels resulting from low summer precipitation rates match observed low lake levels of 10,000-9000 cat yr B.P., whereas a model experiment that simply shifts the seasonality of the modem Massachusetts precipitation regime (i.e., moving the peak monthly precipitation from winter to summer) produces levels that are similar to 2 in lower than today as observed for 5500-3000 cat yr BY, The influence of the Laurentide ice sheet could explain dry summers before ca. 8000 cat yr B.P. A later shift from a summer-wet to a winter-wet moisture-balance regime could have resulted from insolation-driven changes in the influence of the Bermuda subtropical high. Temperature changes probably further modified lake levels by affecting snowmelt and transpiration. (c) 2005 Published by University of Washington.},
	issn = {0033-5894},
	doi = {10.1016/j.yqres.2005.09.001},
	author = {Shuman, B. and Donnelly, J. P.}
}
@article {678,
	title = {Rapid sea-level rise and Holocene climate in the Chukchi Sea},
	journal = {Geology},
	volume = {34},
	year = {2006},
	note = {089zkTimes Cited:67Cited References Count:18},
	month = {Oct},
	pages = {861-864},
	abstract = {Three new sediment cores from the Chukchi Sea preserve a record of local paleoenvironment, sedimentation, and flooding of the Chukchi Shelf (similar to-50 m) by glacial-eustatic sea-level rise. Radiocarbon dates on foraminifera provide the first marine evidence that the sea invaded Hope Valley (southern Chukchi Sea, -53 m) as early as 12 ka. The lack of significant sediment accumulation since ca. 7 ka in Hope Valley, southeastern Chukchi Shelf, is consistent with decreased sediment supply and fluvial discharge to the shelf as deglaciation of Alaska concluded. Abundant benthic foraminifera from a site west of Barrow Canyon indicate that surface waters were more productive 4-6 ka, and this productivity varied on centennial time scales. An offshore companion to this core contains a 20 m record of the Holocene. These results show that carefully selected core sites from the western Arctic Ocean can have a temporal resolution equal to the best cores from other regions, and that these sites can be exploited for high-resolution studies of the paleoenvironment.},
	issn = {0091-7613},
	doi = {10.1130/G22712.1},
	author = {Keigwin, L. D. and Donnelly, J. P. and Cook, M. S. and Driscoll, N. W. and Brigham-Grette, J.}
}
@article {679,
	title = {Young Danube delta documents stable Black Sea level since the middle Holocene: Morphodynamic, paleogeographic, and archaeological implications},
	journal = {Geology},
	volume = {34},
	year = {2006},
	note = {084aqTimes Cited:63Cited References Count:35},
	month = {Sep},
	pages = {757-760},
	abstract = {New radiocarbon and optical dates show that the Holocene Danube delta started to build out of a Black Sea embayment similar to 5200 yr ago. Delta lobe development phases differ by as much as 5 k.y. from previously proposed ages. The new chronology allows for a better understanding of the Danube delta paleogeography, including the demise of Istria, the main ancient Greek-Roman city in the region. Prior reconstructions of sea level in the Black Sea inferred fluctuations to 15 m in range; however, stratigraphy of beach ridges in the delta shows that the relative Black Sea level for the past 5 k.y. was stable in the Danube delta region within -2 m and +1.5 of the current level. Hydroisostatic effects related to a proposed catastrophic reconnection of the Black Sea to the World Ocean in the early Holocene may have been responsible for the sea level reaching the highstand earlier than estimated by models. The new sea-level data suggest that submergence at several ancient settlements around the Black Sea may be better explained by local factors such as subsidence rather than by basin-wide sea-level fluctuations.},
	issn = {0016-8505},
	doi = {10.1130/G22587.1},
	author = {Giosan, L. and Donnelly, J. P. and Constantinescu, S. and Filip, F. and Ovejanu, I. and Vespremeanu-Stroe, A. and Vespremeanu, E. and Duller, G. A. T.}
}
@article {2004,
	title = {Catastrophic meltwater discharge down the Hudson River Valley: A potential trigger for the Intra-Allerod cold period},
	journal = {Geology},
	volume = {33},
	year = {2005},
	note = {id: 1033},
	month = {2005},
	pages = {89-92},
	author = {Donnelly, J. P. and Driscoll, N. and Uchupi, E. and Keigwin, L. and Schwab, W. and Thieler, E. R. and Swift, S.}
}
@article {2005,
	title = {Evidence of past intense tropical cyclones from backbarrier salt pond sediments: A case study from Isla de Culebrita, Puerto Rico, USA},
	journal = {Journal of Coastal Research},
	volume = {SI42},
	year = {2005},
	note = {Sp. Iss. 42947fu
Times Cited:16
Cited References Count:40
},
	month = {Spr},
	pages = {201-210},
	abstract = {Tropical cyclones pose a significant threat to lives and resources in heavily-populated regions and can extensivelymodify coastal landforms. In appropriate depositional environments a sedimentological record of past tropical cyclones can be preserved. Given the relative rarity of landfalling tropical cyclones and the shortness of the instrumental record, little is known about past patterns of hurricane activity. The development of long-term records of tropical cyclone activity will make it possible to examine how past climate change may have influenced the frequency, intensity, and locations (origin, tracks) of hurricanes. Previous work has shown that intense hurricane strikes produce a distinctive sedimentary signature that can be used to reconstruct long-term records of these events. Numerous coastal salt ponds and lagoons in eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are well situated to receive allocthonous sediments during intense tropical cyclone landfalls. Coastal salt ponds, normally low-energy environments, are dominated by fine-grained organic sediments, with the exception of episodic deposition of coarser-grained mineral sediments from the beach and nearshore during extreme storms. Sediment obtained from a series of cores taken from Big Culebrita Salt Pond on the Isla de Culebrita, Puerto Rico reveal a record of flooding-induced sedimentation within mangrove and salt-pond sediments dating back more than 2000 years. Reconstructing the history of storm-surge deposition from backbarrier salt-pond sediments may allow for the reconstruction of a millennial-scale record of tropical cyclones for the northeastern Caribbean and other regions.},
	keywords = {Caribbean, climate, coast, deposits, florida, grain-size analysis, Holocene, hurricane, hurricanes, new-jersey, record, south-carolina, storm, tsunami},
	isbn = {0749-0208},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/25736985},
	author = {Donnelly, J. P.}
}
@article {1997,
	title = {Morphodynamics and evolution of Danube delta},
	journal = {Journal of Sedimentary Research},
	volume = {SP 83},
	year = {2005},
	note = {id: 499},
	month = {2005},
	pages = {391-410},
	author = {Giosan, L. and Vespremeanu, E. and Donnelly, J. P. and Bhattacharya, J. and Buonaiuto, F.}
}
@article {575,
	title = {A backbarrier overwash record of intense storms from Brigantine, New Jersey},
	journal = {Marine Geology},
	volume = {210},
	year = {2004},
	note = {Sp. Iss. SI853thTimes Cited:74Cited References Count:37},
	month = {Sep 15},
	pages = {107-121},
	abstract = {Analysis of aerial photographs and historic charts indicates that the barrier beach at Brigantine, NJ has migrated landward 300 to 400 m since 1869, primarily as a result of overwash during hurricanes and winter storms. A series of vibracores from the backbarrier salt marsh reveals a millennial-scale stratigraphic record of overwash deposition. Carbon-14 (C-14) and Cesium-137 (Cs-137) radioisotopic methods were used to date over-wash deposits (washovers). The ages of recent washovers are consistent with deposition during intense storms in 1938, 1944, 1950, and 1962. An additional overwash deposit recovered in five of the sediment cores was likely deposited by an intense hurricane strike in 1821 or possibly in 1788. Two prehistoric overwash fans were likely deposited by intense storms striking the New Jersey Coast in the 7th to l4th centuries and 6th to 7th centuries A.D. The landward barrier migration indicates that the older overwash sediments were likely transported a considerably greater distance than the more recent overwash fans. The greater distance of transport may indicate that the prehistoric storms that deposited overwash fans across the study site were more intense than the most intense storm to strike this coast in the historic period, the hurricane of 182 1. The spatially variable occurrence of overwash deposition at this site points to a need for multisite stratigraphic surveys of extensive stretches of the coast in order to develop reliable records of past intense storm frequency from backbarrier environments. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.},
	issn = {0025-3227},
	doi = {10.1016/j.margeo.2004.05.005},
	author = {Donnelly, J. P. and Butler, J. and Roll, S. and Wengren, M. and Webb, T.}
}
@inbook {1397,
	title = {Backbarrier sedimentary records of intense hurricane landfalls in the northeastern United States},
	booktitle = {Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present, and Potential},
	year = {2004},
	note = {id: 500},
	month = {2004},
	pages = {58-96},
	publisher = {Columbia Press},
	organization = {Columbia Press},
	address = {New York, NY},
	author = {Donnelly, J. P. and Iii, Webb T.},
	editor = {Murnane, R.}
}
@article {2055,
	title = {Coupling instrumental and geological records of sea-level change: Evidence from southern New England of an increase in the rate of sea-level rise in the late 19th century},
	journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
	volume = {31},
	year = {2004},
	note = {806kkTimes Cited:94
Cited References Count:20
},
	month = {Mar 11},
	abstract = {We construct a high-resolution relative sea-level record for the past 700 years by dating basal salt-marsh peat samples above a glacial erratic in an eastern Connecticut salt marsh, to test whether or not the apparent recent acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise (SLR) is coeval with climate warming. The data reveal an average SLR rate of 1.0 +/- 0.2 mm/year from about 1300 to 1850 A. D. Coupling of the regional tide-gauge data (1856 to present) with this marsh-based record indicates that the nearly three-fold increase in the regional rate of SLR to modern levels likely occurred in the later half of the 19th century. Thus the timing of the observed SLR rate increase is coincident with the onset of climate warming, indicating a possible link between historic SLR increases and recent temperature increases.},
	keywords = {accretion, cal yr ad, climate-ocean variations, connecticut, long-island sound, salt-marsh},
	isbn = {0094-8276},
	doi = {10.1029/2003GL018933},
	url = {http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2\&amp;SrcAuth=Alerting\&amp;SrcApp=Alerting\&amp;DestApp=WOS\&amp;DestLinkType=FullRecord;UT=WOS:000220432600003},
	author = {Donnelly, J. P. and Cleary, P. and Newby, P. and Ettinger, R.}
}
@article {712,
	title = {Rapid shoreward encroachment of salt marsh cordgrass in response to accelerated sea-level rise},
	journal = {Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A},
	volume = {98},
	year = {2001},
	note = {Donnelly, J PBertness, M DengResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov{\textquoteright}t2001/11/29 10:00Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2001 Dec 4;98(25):14218-23. Epub 2001 Nov 27.},
	month = {Dec 04},
	pages = {14218-23},
	abstract = {The distribution of New England salt marsh communities is intrinsically linked to the magnitude, frequency, and duration of tidal inundation. Cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora) exclusively inhabits the frequently flooded lower elevations, whereas a mosaic of marsh hay (Spartina patens), spike grass (Distichlis spicata), and black rush (Juncus gerardi) typically dominate higher elevations. Monitoring plant zonal boundaries in two New England salt marshes revealed that low-marsh cordgrass rapidly moved landward at the expense of higher-marsh species between 1995 and 1998. Plant macrofossils from sediment cores across modern plant community boundaries provided a 2,500-year record of marsh community composition and documented the migration of cordgrass into the high marsh. Isotopic dating revealed that the initiation of cordgrass migration occurred in the late 19th century and continued through the 20th century. The timing of the initiation of cordgrass migration is coincident with an acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise recorded by the New York tide gauge. These results suggest that increased flooding associated with accelerating rates of sea-level rise has stressed high-marsh communities and promoted landward migration of cordgrass. If current rates of sea-level rise continue or increase slightly over the next century, New England salt marshes will be dominated by cordgrass. If climate warming causes sea-level rise rates to increase significantly over the next century, these cordgrass-dominated marshes will likely drown, resulting in extensive losses of coastal wetlands.},
	issn = {0027-8424 (Linking)},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.251209298},
	author = {Donnelly, J. P. and Bertness, M. D.}
}
@article {736,
	title = {Sedimentary evidence of intense hurricane strikes from New Jersey},
	journal = {Geology},
	volume = {29},
	year = {2001},
	note = {449elTimes Cited:102Cited References Count:14},
	month = {Jul},
	pages = {615-618},
	abstract = {Nine Vibracores from the backbarrier marsh at Whale Beach, New Jersey, reveal three large-scale overwash deposits associated with historic and prehistoric storms. The uppermost and smallest overwash fan was deposited in the Ash Wednesday northeaster of March 5-8, 1962, A second more substantial overwash fan between 100 and 35 cm depth dates to the late eighteenth or early nineteenth century. This fan was most likely deposited during the 1821 hurricane, the only intense hurricane to make landfall in New jersey in the past 350 yr, A third, larger overwash fan between 200 and 300 cm depth was deposited between A.D. 1278 and 1438 and is likely the result of a prehistoric intense hurricane strike. The combination of historical and stratigraphic evidence indicates that two intense hurricanes (winds > 50 m s(-1)) have likely made landfall on the southern New Jersey coast in the past 700 yr, resulting in an annual landfall probability of 0.3\%.},
	issn = {0091-7613},
	doi = {10.1130/0091-7613(2001)029<0615:Seoihs>2.0.Co;2},
	author = {Donnelly, J. P. and Roll, S. and Wengren, M. and Butler, J. and Lederer, R. and Webb, T.}
}
