@article {winkler_more_2023,
	title = {More Frequent Hurricane Passage Across the Bahamian Archipelago During the Little Ice Age},
	journal = {Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology},
	volume = {38},
	number = {11},
	year = {2023},
	note = {_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2023PA004623},
	month = {11/2023},
	pages = {e2023PA004623},
	abstract = {The year 2020 Common Era (CE) experienced the highest number of named tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean since 1850 CE, but the short instrumental record makes it challenging to assess if this level of activity is statistically meaningful. Here, we present two near-annually resolved hurricane reconstructions from sediment archived in two blue holes located only 300 m apart on the northern margin of Grand Bahama. These two blue holes provide a replicated signal of hurricanes passing within a 50{\textendash}100 km radius over the last 1,800 years, and the long-term reconstructions document multiple 50-to-150-year intervals when hurricane frequency was significantly higher than it has been over the last 100 years. These two records were first merged into a single stack, and then compiled with five other high-resolution reconstructions from across the Bahamian Archipelago to form a single 1500-year record of Bahamian hurricane frequency. This new Bahamian Compilation documents more hurricanes passing \~{}75{\textdegree}W from 21{\textdegree}N to 26{\textdegree}N during the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1300{\textendash}1850 CE) relative to the prior millennium and the last 170 years. The US Eastern Seaboard also experienced heightened hurricane activity during the LIA, whereas the Gulf of Mexico and Southern Caribbean were inactive. This suggests that despite a globally cooler climate, regional climate conditions during the LIA remained favorable for cyclogenesis and intensification along certain Atlantic hurricane pathways. Perhaps heightened Sahel rainfall during the LIA indicates an increase in African Easterly waves, which in turn possibly seeded more tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Main Development Region.},
	keywords = {Bahamas, Carbonate, common era, hurricanes, Paleoclimate, sedimentology},
	issn = {2572-4525},
	doi = {10.1029/2023PA004623},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2023PA004623},
	author = {Winkler, T. S. and van Hengstum, P. J. and Donnelly, J. P. and Wallace, E. J. and Albury, N. A. and D{\textquoteright}Entremont, N. and Hawkes, A. D. and Maio, C. V. and Roberts, J. and Sullivan, R. M. and Woodruff, J. D.}
}
@article {369,
	title = {Atlantic hurricanes and climate over the past 1,500 years},
	journal = {Nature},
	volume = {460},
	year = {2009},
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	pages = {880-U115},
	abstract = {Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, as measured by annual storm counts, reached anomalous levels over the past decade(1). The short nature of the historical record and potential issues with its reliability in earlier decades, however, has prompted an ongoing debate regarding the reality and significance of the recent rise(2-5). Here we place recent activity in a longer-term context by comparing two independent estimates of tropical cyclone activity over the past 1,500 years. The first estimate is based on a composite of regional sedimentary evidence of landfalling hurricanes, while the second estimate uses a previously published statistical model of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity driven by proxy reconstructions of past climate changes. Both approaches yield consistent evidence of a peak in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity during medieval times (around AD 1000) followed by a subsequent lull in activity. The statistical model indicates that the medieval peak, which rivals or even exceeds (within uncertainties) recent levels of activity, results from the reinforcing effects of La-Nina-like climate conditions and relative tropical Atlantic warmth.},
	issn = {0028-0836},
	doi = {10.1038/nature08219},
	author = {Mann, M. E. and Woodruff, J. D. and Donnelly, J. P. and Zhang, Z. H.}
}
@article {431,
	title = {Exploring typhoon variability over the mid-to-late Holocene: evidence of extreme coastal flooding from Kamikoshiki, Japan},
	journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
	volume = {28},
	year = {2009},
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Donnelly, Jeffrey P. Okusu, Akiko Pergamon-elsevier science ltd Oxford Sp. Iss. SI; YY},
	pages = {1774-1785},
	abstract = {Sediment cores from two coastal lakes located on the island of Kamikoshiki in southwestern Japan (Lake Namakoike and Lake Kaiike) provide evidence for the response of a backbarrier beach system to episodic coastal inundation over the last 6400 years. Sub-bottom seismic surveys exhibit acoustically laminated, parallel to subparallel seismic reflectors, intermittently truncated by erosional unconformities. Sediment cores collected from targeted depocenters in both lakes contain finely laminated organic mud interbedded with coarse-grained units, with depths of coarse deposits concurrent with prominent seismic reflectors. The timing of the youngest deposit at Kamikoshiki correlates to the most recently documented breach in the barrier during a typhoon in 1951 AD. Assuming that this modern deposit provides an analog for identifying past events, paleo-typhoons may be reconstructed from layers exhibiting an increase in grain-size, a break in fine-scale stratigraphy, and elevated Sr concentrations. Periods of barrier breaching are concurrent with an increase in El Nino frequency, indicating that the El Nino/Southern Oscillation has potentially played a key role in governing typhoon variability during the mid-to-late Holocene. An inverse correlation is observed between tropical cyclone reconstructions from the western North Atlantic and the Kamikoshiki site, which may indicate an oscillating pattern in tropical cyclone activity between the western Northern Atlantic and the western North Pacific, or at least between the western Northern Atlantic and regions encompassing southern Japan. The two kamikaze typhoons which contributed to the failed Mongol invasions of Japan in 1274 AD and 1281 AD occur during a period with more frequent marine-sourced deposition at the site, suggesting that the events took place during a period of greater regional typhoon activity. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
	issn = {0277-3791},
	doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.02.005},
	author = {Woodruff, J. D. and Donnelly, J. P. and Okusu, A.}
}
@article {384,
	title = {Assessing sedimentary records of paleohurricane activity using modeled hurricane climatology},
	journal = {Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems},
	volume = {9},
	year = {2008},
	note = {id: 1895; ISI Document Delivery No.: 351AC Times Cited: 2 Cited Reference Count: 46 Cited References: BOVE MC, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P2477 DEMUTH JL, 2006, J APPL METEOROL CLIM, V45, P1573 DONNELLY JP, 2001, GEOL SOC AM BULL, V113, P714 DONNELLY JP, 2001, GEOLOGY, V29, P615 DONNELLY JP, 2001, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V98, P14218 DONNELLY JP, 2004, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V31, ARTN L05203 DONNELLY JP, 2004, HURRICANES TYPHOONS, P58 DONNELLY JP, 2004, MAR GEOL, V210, P107, DOI 10.1016/j.margeo.2004.05.005 DONNELLY JP, 2005, J COAST RES S, V142, P201 DONNELLY JP, 2007, NATURE, V447, P465, DOI 10.1038/nature05834 ELSNER JB, 2001, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V28, P4123 ELSNER JB, 2001, J CLIMATE, V14, P4341 ELSNER JB, 2008, J APPL METEOROL CLIM, V47, P368, DOI 10.1175/2007JAMC1692.1 EMANUEL K, 2004, J ATMOS SCI, V61, P843 EMANUEL K, 2006, B AM METEOROL SOC, V87, P299, DOI 10.1175/BAMS-87-3-299 EMANUEL K, 2008, B AM METEOROL SOC, V89, P347, DOI 10.1175/BAMS-89-3-347 FRAPPIER A, 2007, TELLUS A, V59, P529, DOI 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00250.x FRAPPIER AB, 2007, GEOLOGY, V35, P111, DOI 10.1130/G23145A.1 GEHRELS WR, 2005, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V24, P2083, DOI 10.1016/j.quascirev.2004.11.016 GOLDENBERG SB, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P474 GONZALEZ JL, 2006, EOS, V87, P493, DOI 10.1029/2006EO450001 GRAY WM, 1984, MON WEATHER REV, V112, P1649 JELESNIANSKI CP, 1992, NOAA TECH REP NWS, V48 KALNAY E, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P437 LAMBERT WJ, 2008, J PALEOLIMNOL, V39, P117, DOI 10.1007/s10933-007-9101-6 LIGHTY RG, 1982, CORAL REEFS, V1, P125 LIU KB, 1993, GEOLOGY, V21, P793 LIU KB, 2000, QUATERNARY RES, V54, P238 MALMQUIST DL, 1997, 22 C HURR TROP MET A MERCADO A, 1994, NAT HAZARDS, V10, P235, DOI 10.1007/BF00596144 MILLER DL, 2006, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V103, P14294, DOI 10.1073/pnas.0606549103 MOY CM, 2002, NATURE, V420, P162 NGUETSOP VF, 2004, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V23, P591, DOI 10.1016/j.quascirev.2003.10.007 NOTT J, 2001, NATURE, V413, P508 NOTT J, 2004, ENVIRON INT, V30, P433, DOI 10.1016/j.cnvint.2003.09.010 NOTT J, 2007, EARTH PLANET SC LETT, V255, P367, DOI 10.1016/j.epsl.2006.12.023 NYBERG J, 2002, PALAEOGEOGR PALAEOCL, V183, P25 PIELKE RA, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P2027 PIELKE RA, 2008, NAT HAZARDS REV, V9, P29, DOI 10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2008)9:1(29) RICHEY JN, 2007, GEOLOGY, V35, P423, DOI 10.1130/G23507A.1 SCILEPPI E, 2007, GEOCHEM GEOPHY GEOSY, V8, ARTN Q06011 SIMPSON RH, 1981, HURRICANE ITS IMPACT STOCKDON HF, 2006, COAST ENG, V53, P573, DOI 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2005.12.005 TORNQVIST TE, 2004, GEOL SOC AM BULL, V116, P1026, DOI 10.1130/B2525478.1 WOODRUFF JD, 2008, VIEQUES PUERTO RICO, V36, P391, DOI 10.1130/G24731A.1 WRIGHT CW, 2001, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V31, P2472 Woodruff, Jonathan D. Donnelly, Jeffrey P. Emanuel, Kerry Lane, Philip National Science Foundation ; Risk Prediction Initiative ; National Geographic Society ; Coastal Ocean Institute at WHOI ; Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Endowed Fund for Innovative Research Funding for this research was provided by the Earth Systems History Program of the National Science Foundation, Risk Prediction Initiative, National Geographic Society, Coastal Ocean Institute at WHOI, and the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Endowed Fund for Innovative Research. We are grateful to E. Bryant, M. Gomes, E. Scileppi, and J. Tierney, who assisted with the field and lab work, and thank A. Solow for informative discussions. Special thanks to J. Elsner for providing the POT modeling code and documentation. This article benefited through constructive reviews by three anonymous referees. Amer geophysical union Washington; YY},
	abstract = {Patterns of overwash deposition observed within back-barrier sediment archives can indicate past changes in tropical cyclone activity; however, it is necessary to evaluate the significance of observed trends in the context of the full range of variability under modern climate conditions. Here we present a method for assessing the statistical significance of patterns observed within a sedimentary hurricane-overwash reconstruction. To alleviate restrictions associated with the limited number of historical hurricanes affecting a specific site, we apply a recently published technique for generating a large number of synthetic storms using a coupled ocean- atmosphere hurricane model set to simulate modern climatology. Thousands of overwash records are generated for a site using a random draw of these synthetic hurricanes, a prescribed threshold for overwash, and a specified temporal resolution based on sedimentation rates observed at a particular site. As a test case we apply this Monte Carlo technique to a hurricane- induced overwash reconstruction developed from Laguna Playa Grande (LPG), a coastal lagoon located on the island of Vieques, Puerto Rico in the northeastern Caribbean. Apparent overwash rates in the LPG overwash record are observed to be four times lower between 2500 and 1000 years B. P. when compared to apparent overwash rates during the last 300 years. However, probability distributions based on Monte Carlo simulations indicate that as much as 65\% of this drop can be explained by a reduction in the temporal resolution for older sediments due to a decrease in sedimentation rates. Periods of no apparent overwash activity at LPG between 2500 and 3600 years B. P. and 500-1000 years B. P. are exceptionally long and are unlikely to occur (above 99\% confidence) under the current climate conditions. In addition, breaks in activity are difficult to produce even when the hurricane model is forced to a constant El Nino state. Results from this study continue to support the interpretation that the western North Atlantic has exhibited significant changes in hurricane climatology over the last 5500 years.},
	issn = {1525-2027},
	doi = {10.1029/2008gc002043},
	author = {Woodruff, J. D. and Donnelly, J. P. and Emanuel, K. and Lane, P.}
}
@article {320,
	title = {Reconstructing relative flooding intensities responsible for hurricane-induced deposits from Laguna Playa Grande, Vieques, Puerto Rico},
	journal = {Geology},
	volume = {36},
	year = {2008},
	note = {id: 865; ISI Document Delivery No.: 300VM Times Cited: 3 Cited Reference Count: 19 Cited References: BALDOCK TE, 2005, COAST ENG, V52, P633, DOI 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2005.04.002 BOOSE ER, 2004, ECOL MONOGR, V74, P335 DONNELLY C, 2006, J COASTAL RES, V22, P965, DOI 10.2112/04-0431.1 DONNELLY JP, 2001, GEOLOGY, V29, P615 DONNELLY JP, 2007, NATURE, V447, P465, DOI 10.1038/nature05834 FERGUSON RI, 2004, J SEDIMENT RES, V74, P933 HAUG GH, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P1304 HOLLAND TK, 2001, COASTAL SEDIMENTS 91, P489 JAFFE BE, 2007, SEDIMENT GEOL, V200, P347, DOI 10.1016/j.sedgeo.2007.01.013 LIU KB, 1993, GEOLOGY, V21, P793 MERCADO A, 1994, NAT HAZARDS, V10, P235, DOI 10.1007/BF00596144 MEYERPETER E, 1948, 2ND P C IAHR STOCKH, V2, P39 MOORE AL, 2007, SEDIMENT GEOL, V200, P336, DOI 10.1016/j.sedgeo.2007.01.012 NOTT J, 2004, ENVIRON INT, V30, P433, DOI 10.1016/j.cnvint.2003.09.010 NYBERG J, 2001, QUATERNARY RES, V56, P87, DOI 10.1006/qres.2001.2249 RUESSINK BG, 1998, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V103, P3111 SOLA EM, 1995, HISTORIA HURACANES P STOCKDON HF, 2006, COAST ENG, V53, P573, DOI 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2005.12.005 VISSER PJ, 1998, BREACH GROWTH SAND D Woodruff, Jonathan D. Donnelly, Jeffrey P. Mohrig, David Geyer, Wayne R. Geological soc amer, inc Boulder; YY},
	pages = {391-394},
	abstract = {Extreme coastal flooding, primarily during hurricane strikes, has deposited sand-rich layers in Laguna Playa Grande, a back-barrier lagoon located on the island of Vieques, Puerto Rico. Silici-clastic grain-size distributions within these overwash deposits fine landward (away from the barrier and toward the mainland). A simple advective-settling model can explain this pattern of lateral sorting and is used to constrain the relative magnitude of past flooding events. A deposit associated with the A.D. 1928 San Felipe hurricane is used as a modern analogue to test the technique, which produces reasonable estimates for wave heights that exceed the barrier during the event. A 5000 yr reconstruction of local flooding intensity is developed that provides a measure of the competence for each overwash event to transport coarser-grained sediment a fixed distance into the lagoon. This reconstruction indicates that although the Laguna Playa Grande record exhibits large-scale changes in hurricane frequency on centennial to millennial time scales, the magnitude of these events has stayed relatively constant. Over the last 5000 yr, no evidence exists for an anomalously large hurricane or tsunami event with a competence for sediment transport greater than historical hurricane events.},
	issn = {0091-7613},
	doi = {10.1130/g24731a.1},
	author = {Woodruff, J. D. and Donnelly, J. P. and Mohrig, D. and Geyer, W. R.}
}
@article {716,
	title = {Intense hurricane activity over the past 5,000 years controlled by El Nino and the West African monsoon},
	journal = {Nature},
	volume = {447},
	year = {2007},
	note = {Donnelly, Jeffrey PWoodruff, Jonathan DengResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov{\textquoteright}tResearch Support, U.S. Gov{\textquoteright}t, Non-P.H.S.England2007/05/25 09:00Nature. 2007 May 24;447(7143):465-8.},
	month = {May 24},
	pages = {465-8},
	abstract = {The processes that control the formation, intensity and track of hurricanes are poorly understood. It has been proposed that an increase in sea surface temperatures caused by anthropogenic climate change has led to an increase in the frequency of intense tropical cyclones, but this proposal has been challenged on the basis that the instrumental record is too short and unreliable to reveal trends in intense tropical cyclone activity. Storm-induced deposits preserved in the sediments of coastal lagoons offer the opportunity to study the links between climatic conditions and hurricane activity on longer timescales, because they provide centennial- to millennial-scale records of past hurricane landfalls. Here we present a record of intense hurricane activity in the western North Atlantic Ocean over the past 5,000 years based on sediment cores from a Caribbean lagoon that contain coarse-grained deposits associated with intense hurricane landfalls. The record indicates that the frequency of intense hurricane landfalls has varied on centennial to millennial scales over this interval. Comparison of the sediment record with palaeo-climate records indicates that this variability was probably modulated by atmospheric dynamics associated with variations in the El Nino/Southern Oscillation and the strength of the West African monsoon, and suggests that sea surface temperatures as high as at present are not necessary to support intervals of frequent intense hurricanes. To accurately predict changes in intense hurricane activity, it is therefore important to understand how the El Nino/Southern Oscillation and the West African monsoon will respond to future climate change.},
	issn = {0028-0836 (Linking)},
	doi = {10.1038/nature05834},
	author = {Donnelly, J. P. and Woodruff, J. D.}
}
