@article {2500,
	title = {Heightened hurricane activity on the Little Bahama Bank from 1350 to 1650 AD},
	journal = {Elsevier},
	volume = {86},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {103-115},
	abstract = {Deciphering how the climate system has controlled North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity through the Holocene will require a larger observational network of prehistoric hurricane activity. Problematically, the tropical North Atlantic is dominated by carbonate landscapes that typically preserve poorer quality coastal sediment records in comparison to their temperate-region counterparts (e.g., sedimentation continuity and rate). Coastal karst basins (CKBs), such as sinkholes, blueholes, and underwater caves, are widely distributed on carbonate platforms and contain overlooked sedimentary records. Here we present a millennium of hurricane deposits on the Little Bahama Bank archived in a 165 cm core that was extracted from 69 m below sea level in a bluehole on Great Abaco Island, The Bahamas. The coarse- grained overwash deposits associated with both hurricanes Jeanne (2004) and Floyd (1999) were identified using radioisotopes (137Cs,14
C,210Pb), and indicate that the bluehole is sensitive to hurricane- induced sedimentation. Over the last millennium, the Little Bahama Bank experienced heightened hurricane activity from 1350 to 1650 AD. The simplest explanation for this active interval is that favorable climate conditions (El Ni{\~n}o, West African Monsoon, and sea surface temperatures) encouraged North Atlantic hurricane activity at that time. However, asynchronous hurricane activity at similar latitudes in
the North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico suggest that regional oceanography has modulated or amplified regional hurricane activity over the last millennium.},
	keywords = {Abaco, Bahamas, Blue hole, hurricanes, Paleotempestology},
	issn = {0278-4343},
	author = {van Hengstum, P.J. and Donnelly, J.P. and Toomey, M.R and Albury, N.A. and Lane, P. and Kakuk, B.}
}
@article {384,
	title = {Assessing sedimentary records of paleohurricane activity using modeled hurricane climatology},
	journal = {Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems},
	volume = {9},
	year = {2008},
	note = {id: 1895; ISI Document Delivery No.: 351AC Times Cited: 2 Cited Reference Count: 46 Cited References: BOVE MC, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P2477 DEMUTH JL, 2006, J APPL METEOROL CLIM, V45, P1573 DONNELLY JP, 2001, GEOL SOC AM BULL, V113, P714 DONNELLY JP, 2001, GEOLOGY, V29, P615 DONNELLY JP, 2001, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V98, P14218 DONNELLY JP, 2004, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V31, ARTN L05203 DONNELLY JP, 2004, HURRICANES TYPHOONS, P58 DONNELLY JP, 2004, MAR GEOL, V210, P107, DOI 10.1016/j.margeo.2004.05.005 DONNELLY JP, 2005, J COAST RES S, V142, P201 DONNELLY JP, 2007, NATURE, V447, P465, DOI 10.1038/nature05834 ELSNER JB, 2001, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V28, P4123 ELSNER JB, 2001, J CLIMATE, V14, P4341 ELSNER JB, 2008, J APPL METEOROL CLIM, V47, P368, DOI 10.1175/2007JAMC1692.1 EMANUEL K, 2004, J ATMOS SCI, V61, P843 EMANUEL K, 2006, B AM METEOROL SOC, V87, P299, DOI 10.1175/BAMS-87-3-299 EMANUEL K, 2008, B AM METEOROL SOC, V89, P347, DOI 10.1175/BAMS-89-3-347 FRAPPIER A, 2007, TELLUS A, V59, P529, DOI 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00250.x FRAPPIER AB, 2007, GEOLOGY, V35, P111, DOI 10.1130/G23145A.1 GEHRELS WR, 2005, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V24, P2083, DOI 10.1016/j.quascirev.2004.11.016 GOLDENBERG SB, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P474 GONZALEZ JL, 2006, EOS, V87, P493, DOI 10.1029/2006EO450001 GRAY WM, 1984, MON WEATHER REV, V112, P1649 JELESNIANSKI CP, 1992, NOAA TECH REP NWS, V48 KALNAY E, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P437 LAMBERT WJ, 2008, J PALEOLIMNOL, V39, P117, DOI 10.1007/s10933-007-9101-6 LIGHTY RG, 1982, CORAL REEFS, V1, P125 LIU KB, 1993, GEOLOGY, V21, P793 LIU KB, 2000, QUATERNARY RES, V54, P238 MALMQUIST DL, 1997, 22 C HURR TROP MET A MERCADO A, 1994, NAT HAZARDS, V10, P235, DOI 10.1007/BF00596144 MILLER DL, 2006, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V103, P14294, DOI 10.1073/pnas.0606549103 MOY CM, 2002, NATURE, V420, P162 NGUETSOP VF, 2004, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V23, P591, DOI 10.1016/j.quascirev.2003.10.007 NOTT J, 2001, NATURE, V413, P508 NOTT J, 2004, ENVIRON INT, V30, P433, DOI 10.1016/j.cnvint.2003.09.010 NOTT J, 2007, EARTH PLANET SC LETT, V255, P367, DOI 10.1016/j.epsl.2006.12.023 NYBERG J, 2002, PALAEOGEOGR PALAEOCL, V183, P25 PIELKE RA, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P2027 PIELKE RA, 2008, NAT HAZARDS REV, V9, P29, DOI 10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2008)9:1(29) RICHEY JN, 2007, GEOLOGY, V35, P423, DOI 10.1130/G23507A.1 SCILEPPI E, 2007, GEOCHEM GEOPHY GEOSY, V8, ARTN Q06011 SIMPSON RH, 1981, HURRICANE ITS IMPACT STOCKDON HF, 2006, COAST ENG, V53, P573, DOI 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2005.12.005 TORNQVIST TE, 2004, GEOL SOC AM BULL, V116, P1026, DOI 10.1130/B2525478.1 WOODRUFF JD, 2008, VIEQUES PUERTO RICO, V36, P391, DOI 10.1130/G24731A.1 WRIGHT CW, 2001, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V31, P2472 Woodruff, Jonathan D. Donnelly, Jeffrey P. Emanuel, Kerry Lane, Philip National Science Foundation ; Risk Prediction Initiative ; National Geographic Society ; Coastal Ocean Institute at WHOI ; Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Endowed Fund for Innovative Research Funding for this research was provided by the Earth Systems History Program of the National Science Foundation, Risk Prediction Initiative, National Geographic Society, Coastal Ocean Institute at WHOI, and the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Endowed Fund for Innovative Research. We are grateful to E. Bryant, M. Gomes, E. Scileppi, and J. Tierney, who assisted with the field and lab work, and thank A. Solow for informative discussions. Special thanks to J. Elsner for providing the POT modeling code and documentation. This article benefited through constructive reviews by three anonymous referees. Amer geophysical union Washington; YY},
	abstract = {Patterns of overwash deposition observed within back-barrier sediment archives can indicate past changes in tropical cyclone activity; however, it is necessary to evaluate the significance of observed trends in the context of the full range of variability under modern climate conditions. Here we present a method for assessing the statistical significance of patterns observed within a sedimentary hurricane-overwash reconstruction. To alleviate restrictions associated with the limited number of historical hurricanes affecting a specific site, we apply a recently published technique for generating a large number of synthetic storms using a coupled ocean- atmosphere hurricane model set to simulate modern climatology. Thousands of overwash records are generated for a site using a random draw of these synthetic hurricanes, a prescribed threshold for overwash, and a specified temporal resolution based on sedimentation rates observed at a particular site. As a test case we apply this Monte Carlo technique to a hurricane- induced overwash reconstruction developed from Laguna Playa Grande (LPG), a coastal lagoon located on the island of Vieques, Puerto Rico in the northeastern Caribbean. Apparent overwash rates in the LPG overwash record are observed to be four times lower between 2500 and 1000 years B. P. when compared to apparent overwash rates during the last 300 years. However, probability distributions based on Monte Carlo simulations indicate that as much as 65\% of this drop can be explained by a reduction in the temporal resolution for older sediments due to a decrease in sedimentation rates. Periods of no apparent overwash activity at LPG between 2500 and 3600 years B. P. and 500-1000 years B. P. are exceptionally long and are unlikely to occur (above 99\% confidence) under the current climate conditions. In addition, breaks in activity are difficult to produce even when the hurricane model is forced to a constant El Nino state. Results from this study continue to support the interpretation that the western North Atlantic has exhibited significant changes in hurricane climatology over the last 5500 years.},
	issn = {1525-2027},
	doi = {10.1029/2008gc002043},
	author = {Woodruff, J. D. and Donnelly, J. P. and Emanuel, K. and Lane, P.}
}
